Data Analysis, Modeling, and Ensemble Forecasting to Support NOWCAST and Forecast Activities at the Fallon Naval Station
Abstract
The goals of this project are to increase our understanding of weather predictability and its advantages and limitations, and to develop methods to provide more accurate forecasts and nowcasts in complex terrain using multi-model ensemble modeling techniques and special observations including remotely sensed data. The main objectives of the study are: 1) to further develop, test, and continue twice daily operational forecasts using both the real time Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF Version 3.2) model (Skamarock et al. 2008) and Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5 Version 3.7.2) (Grell et al. 1994) with subkilometer horizontal resolution to support the NOWCAST system at the Fallon Naval Air Station (NAS); 2) To extend the real time forecasting system with a continuous 15-day forecast using WRF as a testbed; 3) To analyze multi-model ensemble forecasting capabilities and to provide basis for a real time multi-model ensembles using WRF, MM5, and the Coastal Oceanic and Atmospheric Modeling Prediction System (COAMPSTM, Version 3.1.1) (Hodur 1997); 4) To develop a framework that complements the ensemble forecasting to better understand the sources of error and uncertainty in dynamical forecasts relevant to nowcasting key parameters such as wind speed, cloud fields, and visibility over the Fallon NAS area; and 5) To test the forecasting methodology for critical conditions of a dust storm affecting the southwest U.S. including the Fallon area.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA557159
Entities
People
- Darko Koračin
- John Lewis
Organizations
- Desert Research Institute