The Properties of Convective Clouds Over the Western Pacific and Their Relationship to the Environment of Tropical Cyclones
Abstract
The long-term goal of this research is to advance our understanding of the relationship between large-scale and mesoscale environmental conditions and small but powerful convective events during tropical cyclone (TC) development and intensity changes. Our ultimate goal is to identify the necessary conditions that determine the formation and evolution of a TC. Using data obtained during ONR's Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 (TCS-08) program in the western Pacific region, we investigated large-scale environmental conditions, mesoscale phenomena, and small-scale convective bursts and how they contributed to TC formation and intensity changes. Specific objectives were as follows: (1) characterize the intensity of convection over the western Pacific ocean using aircraft and satellite data; (2) derive an accurate mesoscale environment of convective systems through the assimilation of satellite, radar, lidar, and in-situ data; (3) evaluate the quality of global forecast systems (e.g., Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, or NOGAPS) with regard to accuracy of TC forecasts; and (4) understand the environmental factors that determine tropical cyclone formation and rapid intensification. To achieve the research objectives of this proposal, our approach integrated observational data analysis, mesoscale data assimilation, and forecast evaluations. This included analyzing TCS-08 field data in conjunction with the available satellite data products from the NASA Aqua and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM); integrating mesoscale numerical simulations and assimilation of satellite, radar, lidar, and in-situ data into the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Coupled Ocean/Atmospheric Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS); and (3) evaluating the performance of global ensemble forecasting methods.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA557272
Entities
People
- Allen Zhao
- Carolyn Reynolds
- Zhaoxia Pu
Organizations
- University of Utah