What's the Potential for Conflict with China, and How Can It Be Avoided?
Abstract
Over the next 20 years, China's gross domestic product and defense budget could exceed those of the United States, making it a true peer competitor. Despite this potential, China's security interests and military capabilities will remain focused on its immediate periphery. China does not appear interested in matching U.S. military expenditures, achieving a comparable global reach, or assuming defense commitments beyond its immediate sphere. As a result, armed conflict between the United States and China is unlikely. Key Points: (1) Even as China becomes a near peer competitor, armed conflict between China and the United States will be unlikely; (2) To ensure this, the United States must retain its deterrent capacity and bolster the capabilities and resolve of other regional states; (3) Should conflict with China occur, the economic consequences would be historically unparalleled; and (4) A collapse of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is the most likely East Asia contingency, and U.S. ground forces will be essential to address it.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA559229
Entities
People
- Jerry Sollinger
Organizations
- RAND Corporation