Improving Counterinsurgency Campaign Assessment: The Importance of Transparency in the Fog of War
Abstract
Military campaign assessments are a cornerstone of sound strategic decision making. A RAND study examined the process and methods used to assess the progress of counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns in an effort to inform ongoing assessments of operations in Afghanistan and, ultimately, contribute to improvements in military doctrine. Beginning in late 2011 -- after the study had concluded -- the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan began developing and implementing an improved COIN assessment methodology. These improvements reflect some of the same perspectives provided in other contemporary analyses of the campaign assessment process and in the RAND study, the results of which were circulated among U.S. and ISAF leadership at conferences in 2010-2011. The RAND study found that COIN assessment processes used by the U.S. military do not provide an accurate assessment of the military campaign. This finding highlighted the need for a process to add transparency and context to military campaign assessments, making them more credible and useful at all levels of decision making. In counterinsurgency, context is critical. Conditions at the local level, not broad trends, reflect the course of a campaign. Therefore, campaign assessment must capture and reflect relevant local context. Measurement does not equal assessment. Traditional approaches to assessing the progress of counterinsurgency campaigns that rely on aggregated quantitative data may obscure important strategic details. Contextual assessment is necessary to improve transparency and credibility; this can be done without putting subordinate commands at risk or adding substantially to staff burdens.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA559230
Entities
Organizations
- RAND Corporation