Preventing Intelligence Failures in an Unpredictable 21st Century
Abstract
Intelligence is a fundamental element of national security; however, history is littered with intelligence failures. Intelligence is about gathering information to inform our decisions and make better choices. Ultimately, intelligence will always be imperfect and, as history demonstrates, surprise can never be completely prevented. Despite intelligence reform legislation enacted on December 17, 2004 to prevent another 9/11, the United States (U.S.) intelligence community (IC) is guaranteed to experience intelligence failure(s) within the foreseeable future. The contemporary security environment presents a particularly difficult challenge for strategic intelligence warning. In the post-9/11 world, intelligence must move faster and must leverage all sources of intelligence. This paper contends that the current intelligence cycle model has major flaws. In short, the current intelligence cycle is not adaptive enough to keep up with, much less get ahead of, today's priority intelligence targets (e.g., nonstate actors, transnational criminal organizations, and terrorist groups), which are greater in number and often more obscure in character than ever before. The purpose of the paper is threefold: discuss the anatomy of intelligence, diagnose the general causes and consequences of intelligence failures, and prescribe an antidote for pathologies that contribute to failures.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 20, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA560770
Entities
People
- Darin L. Brockington
Organizations
- United States Army War College