Achieving Peace in Afghanistan: Obstacles and Recommendations
Abstract
In June 2011, President Obama established two policy objectives for the United States in Afghanistan. First, he restated that the United States will not allow "safe haven from which al Qaeda or its affiliates can launch attacks against our homeland or our allies." Second, the United States will support an Afghan-led reconciliation with the Taliban to achieve a political settlement. President Obama framed this policy with a date of 2014 for the transition of security to the government of Afghanistan. In December 2011, during an interview with Newsweek, Vice-President Biden provided additional insight into the administration's Afghanistan objectives and what might be an acceptable outcome. First, the United States will maintain pressure on al Qaeda. Second, the Government of Afghanistan must be in a strong and secure position to negotiate with the Taliban. Lastly, Biden stated, "we are in a position where if Afghanistan ceased and desisted from being a haven for people who do damage and have as a target the United States of America and their allies, that's good enough." Neither official described the defeat of the Taliban as an objective of the United States. Both leaders clearly articulated the intent to seek reconciliation with an assurance that Afghanistan will not become a safe haven for transnational terrorists. This paper will argue that a political settlement by 2014 is unlikely because of the inherent political complexity in Afghanistan. Specifically, the current security situation, uncertainty surrounding the future of coalition forces and Afghan leadership, and the interest of Afghan minorities and regional actors makes a political settlement by 2014 unlikely. The paper will identify five significant obstacles to the peace process. To overcome these obstacles, the U.S. Government will need to take a greater role in Afghan-led negotiations. The paper proposes three changes to U.S. policy to facilitate a lasting transition in 2014.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 05, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA561271
Entities
People
- Lee K. Grubbs
Organizations
- United States Army War College