The Perils of Bipolarity: Subnational Conflict and the Rise of China
Abstract
The United States emerged from the Cold War as the sole superpower in a unipolar international system. However, evidence suggests this unipolarity could soon change as a new bipolar system emerges with China as the next challenger superpower. Scholars debate the likelihood of future war with a rising China, each side arguing whether direct conflict is inevitable. Yet this debate does not consider what I suggest is the most probable future of U.S.-China relations. While direct conflict with China is indeed a possibility, it remains remote. I contend that subnational conflict will rise once more as the United States engages in proxy conflicts with China over resource access in Africa. These conflicts will place great demands on all U.S. instruments of power, as involvement in counterinsurgency operations in Africa trends upward. Bipolarity and renewed proxy conflict will require rethinking of long-term national and military strategies focused primarily on large-scale interstate wars. This will impact defense acquisition and military doctrine as U.S. strategic focus shifts from conventional conflict to counterinsurgency operations. Following an Introduction, Section 2 defines subnational and proxy conflicts and explains why nuclear powers in a bipolar system make strategic policy choices to compete by proxy over contentious issues. It reviews the historical record of subnational proxy conflict conducted by the United States and the USSR from 1946 through the end of the Cold War era. The next section discusses the rationale for my claim that China will soon be poised to challenge the United States within a new bipolar order, with a concomitant increase of proxy conflicts between the two. Section 4 reviews the implications for U.S. grand and military strategies as well as for defense acquisition programs and development of future doctrine to meet this new order. The concluding section discusses recommendations for strategic planning over the next several decades.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Feb 17, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA562100
Entities
People
- Mark O. Yeisley
Organizations
- Air War College