Estimates of Surface Drifter Trajectories in the Equatorial Atlantic: A Multi-model Ensemble Approach
Abstract
Estimated 7-day surface drifter trajectories are compared in the equatorial Atlantic over an 18-month period. Trajectories are based on five eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) reanalyses and one observational product. The observational product had smaller errors than any individual OGCM reanalyses. Strategies for improving trajectory estimates using multi-model ensembles and spatial low-pass filtering are explored. The results were insensitive to the method used to create the ensemble estimates, and by most measures, the results were better than the observational product. Comparison of relative skill of the various ()(|( \l reanalyses suggested promising avenues for exploration for further improvements: forcing with higher frequency \\ ind stress and quality control of input data. Results from this study are consistent with previous work showing that ensemble-mean forecast skill is superior to individual forecasts.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA562752
Entities
People
- Charlie N. Barron
- E. Joseph Metzger
- Jean-michel Lellouche
- Marie Drevillon
- Marie-helene Rio
- Nicolas C. Jourdain
- Nicolas Ferry
- Ole Martin Smedstad
- Robert B. Scott
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory