Poppies or Peace: The Relationship between Opium Production and Conflict

Abstract

Presidential Study Directive-10 directed executive agencies to improve efforts in preventing human atrocities. Conflict analysis has identified that internal conflict has significant adverse effects on civilian populations. Apart from increased casualties arising out of collateral damage, civilian populations also suffer loss of income, destruction of property and food stores, internal displacement, and even involuntary conscription and forced labor. Reducing internal conflict is part of conflict prevention. Research into economic theories of conflict analysis has examined the role of primary export commodities as they relate to increases in internal conflict. As part of this area of research, this thesis examines whether illicit raw opium production, as a primary export commodity, appears to have a similar function with respect to conflict. Analyzing data on changes in raw opium production in the context of the national economy, and comparing that data to changes in internal armed conflict suggests that increased illicit opium production relates to increases in internal conflict. This apparent association implies that atrocity prevention may benefit from incorporating opium crop monitoring and eradication into planning efforts. The primary research question is as follows: If a nation's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reflects an increase in illicit opium trade, does this data demonstrate an increased likelihood of internal armed conflict? To effectively interpret the results of the primary research question, the secondary research questions focus on the following: (1) isolating the cause of any variance in results, and (2) explaining the qualitative relevance of these results to conflict prediction and atrocity prevention.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jun 08, 2012
Accession Number
ADA562862

Entities

People

  • Kielly A. Andrews

Organizations

  • United States Army Command and General Staff College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Biomedical
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Civil War
  • Commerce
  • Data Analysis
  • Drug Abuse
  • Drug Trafficking
  • Ethnic Groups
  • Geography
  • Governments
  • Human Population
  • International Law
  • International Organizations
  • Minority Groups
  • National Governments
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Political Systems
  • Social Welfare

Readers

  • Child and Adolescent Substance Abuse Science in Autism Spectrum Disorders.
  • Economics
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.