Korean Spring? An Analysis of the Arab Spring and Its Relevance for North Korea
Abstract
In December 2010, spontaneous protests began in Tunisia following the self-immolation of a Tunisian citizen, who was upset after having his vegetable cart seized by Tunisian police. Wide-spread demonstrations followed in the capital city of Tunis. Quickly the protests and demonstrations spread to Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain, Libya, and Syria. The series of uprisings came to be known as the "Arab Spring." The civil uprisings resulted in the downfall of autocratic leaders throughout the Middle East and North Africa. On the other side of the globe, North Korea has taken notice of the Arab Spring. North Korea is undergoing a transition following the death of Kim Jong II. This thesis analyzes the conditions that existed during the Arab Spring in Egypt, Libya, and Syria and applies that analysis to North Korea to determine the possibility of a "Korean Spring" revolution. The three conditions analyzed are as follows: (1) geo-political environment, (2) role of the military in society, and (3) social media. Just as the Arab Spring took the world by surprise, it is impossible to speak in absolutes about the possibility of a popular uprising in North Korea. Ultimately, the thesis concludes that it is unlikely that an Arab Spring revolution will occur in North Korea because of that nation's desire for stability in the geopolitical environment, the vast size and status of the North Korean military, and North Korea's lack of modern tools of revolution (Twitter, Facebook, etc.). North Korean leaders will do everything in their control to maintain their power.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 08, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA562986
Entities
People
- Brendan Toolan
Organizations
- United States Army Command and General Staff College