Data-Driven Monetization of Acquisition Risk

Abstract

The current state of practice in program risk assessment relies on the best judgment of program management and systems engineering to identify and qualitatively assess the nature and probability of risks. While there are best practices and lessons learned upon which the risk assessment process can rely, the process is still heavily qualitative and is performed by program management and systems engineering staff who are inherently optimistic about program success. As a result, risks and their consequences are frequently underestimated. We propose a methodology that actively collects, and continuously and quantitatively analyzes, metrics that are earlier indicators of risk than cost and schedule slips. This methodology includes the application of web-based technologies for collection and analysis, a quantified risk cloud and monetized risk thresholds, establishing a readily accessible knowledge base of previous program failures, and new metrics to be collected closer to the source of risk. The presentation includes 22 briefing charts.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 30, 2012
Accession Number
ADA563533

Entities

People

  • David L. Drake
  • Katherine L. Morse

Organizations

  • Johns Hopkins University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Human Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Acquisition
  • Business Administration
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Cybersecurity
  • Economics
  • Engineering
  • Engineers
  • Failure Mode And Effect Analysis
  • Gantt Charts
  • Lessons Learned
  • Mathematics
  • Military Acquisition
  • Probability
  • Risk
  • Risk Analysis
  • Risk Management

Fields of Study

  • Computer science

Readers

  • Life Cycle Cost Analysis
  • Systems Analysis and Design