MetaModel Analysis for Agent-Based Models: Scales, Uncertainty, Data Analysis
Abstract
An agent-based model of civil violence/criminal activity was developed. The agent based model was found to be in good agreement with FBI data on crime and violence in 5660 U.S. cities. In particular, the proportion of law enforcement officers required to maintain a steady low level of criminal activity was found to increase with the size of the population. Reducing the number of law enforcement officers below a critical level can rapidly increase the incidence of violent/criminal activity. Application of global sensitivity analysis to the agent-based model identified the law enforcement officer vision as the most significant parameter. A method to speed-up the model evaluation was developed by employing stochastic differential equations. Jailed citizens and active citizens served as two coarse variables in the reduced model. The effect of preferential gathering sites attracting active citizens was studied. It was found that increased density of citizens around the gathering sites leads to increased violence/criminal activity in the city. The effect of citizen's remote vision via a small world network was also studied. It was found that local vision is more important in creating outbursts of activity than the possibility of being connected to long-distance neighbors.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 10, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA563753
Entities
People
- Igor Mezić
- Jadranka Mezic
- Maria Fonoberova
- Vladimir A. Fonoberov