The Effect of Bin Laden's Death and Arab Spring on Al Qaeda's Operational Center of Gravity

Abstract

The death of Usama bin Laden (UBL) and the Arab Spring have led to multiple pronouncements suggesting that Al Qaeda's (AQ) strategic defeat is near. Such judgments may be premature, as AQ's operational center of gravity (COG) -- its affiliate network collectively known as AQ and Associated Movements (AQAM) -- has not been significantly weakened by these events, and enables AQ to remain a viable terror organization. Tied together by a common ideology which still finds resonance in a post-Arab Spring Muslim world, AQAM retains the capability and intent to conduct terror operations despite the loss of their ideological leader. Moreover, UBL's death and the Arab Spring may offer AQAM certain opportunities for growth, as AQAM elements vie for strategic control of the movement and exploit potential dissatisfaction with Arab Spring outcomes. As AQAM evolves in the post-UBL, post-Arab Spring world, approaches to combating its influence must evolve as well, with renewed emphasis on countering AQ's narrative while broadening kinetic efforts to reduce AQAM's freedom of movement at the operational level of war.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 04, 2012
Accession Number
ADA563762

Entities

People

  • Jay P. Aldea

Organizations

  • Naval War College

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Autonomy
  • C4I
  • Cyber
  • Engineered Resilient Systems
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Center Of Gravity
  • Command And Control
  • Governments
  • Gravity
  • Information Operations
  • Middle East
  • Military Operations
  • National Security
  • Organizational Structure
  • Political Movements
  • Security
  • Social Media
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • United States Military Academy
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Military History / Militaries and War Studies
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.