Estimating Bird / Aircraft Collision Probabilities and Risk Utilizing Spatial Poisson Processes
Abstract
Aircraft collisions with avian species are a serious safety problem as well as a serious economic issue. Aircraft / bird strikes have resulted in 33 fatalities, the loss of 39 aircraft, and damages to aircraft in excess of $820M for the United States Air Force. The objective of this paper is to create a closed form mathematical model that estimates the probability of a bird / aircraft collision and provides a risk score that can be utilized to underpin decisions made by planners and pilots. The major components of the model are the spatial Poisson process, the extended spatial Poisson process, a gamma distribution of bird altitudes, a relative risk score, a standardized risk score scale, and a risk filtering and ranking method. The spatial Poisson process allows for an independent distribution of birds within a bounded area. The extended spatial Poisson process accounts for the removal of birds from calculations within the bounded area after they have been encountered. The gamma distribution models the distribution of specific bird altitude bands within a bounded area. The relative risk score is a weighted risk score for 19 different species of birds that an aircraft might encounter. The standardized scale aggregates all risk scores over all the bird species and then calculates the value in a 0 to 10 scale. The risk filtering and ranking model combines the effects of a hit with the likelihood of a hit and displays the result in a graphic. The overall model that combines these components and calculates the output is an original contribution to the field of aircraft / avian collision models. Exercising the model reveals significant factors that influence the risk score associated with flying in a particular area. They are the total number of birds in the bounded region, the mix of species within the bounded region, the size of the aircraft, and the gamma height distribution of the birds within the bounded region. Knowing the gamma height distribution for the specific
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 10, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA563995
Entities
People
- Brady J. Vaira
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology