Multiple Hypothesis Situation Analysis Support System Prototype

Abstract

Uncertainty makes the analysis of even simple situations difficult. It forces intelligence analysts to formulate and manage hypotheses during the construction of explicit representations of real world situations. This may quickly become overwhelming. To provide better support to the intelligence staff, the main concepts behind multiple hypothesis tracking have been revisited to develop a proof-of-concept prototype of a multiple hypothesis situation analysis (MHSA) support system. A key objective is to showcase the potential and utility of MHSA. It has thus been conceived to allow users, developers, and managers to better understand each and every aspect of the MHSA process, which isn't like a Bayesian Net. This paper discusses a situation modeling graphical language, the interdependency and uncertainty about the situation model components, the hypothesis tree data structure used to keep track of the uncertainty, different issues regarding the hypothesis tree, hypothesis scoring, and user interactions with the MHSA support system prototype.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA564684

Entities

People

  • Alexandre B. Guyard
  • Jean Roy

Organizations

  • DRDC Valcartier

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Analysts
  • Artificial Intelligence Computing
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Construction
  • False Alarms
  • Hypotheses
  • Intelligence Analysts
  • Language
  • Military Research
  • Models
  • Multiple Hypothesis Tracking
  • Probability
  • Prototypes
  • Trees (Data Structures)
  • Uncertainty

Readers

  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.

Technology Areas

  • AI & ML