Democratization in the Arab World: Prospects and Lessons from Around the Globe
Abstract
The successful revolts in early 2011 against long-entrenched autocrats in Egypt and Tunisia were a remarkable human achievement. By the end of 2011, Tunisia had crossed the threshold to becoming an electoral democracy. Over the course of the year, ragtag groups of rebels steadily gained ground in their ultimately successful quest to push Libya s dictator from power. And by early 2012, a handover of power was under way in Yemen after a yearlong uprising; Syrian authorities were brutally suppressing an active opposition; and the Sunni minority s hold on power in Bahrain remained contested by the Shia majority. The utterly unexpected Arab Spring had catalyzed a political sea change. But daunting challenges clearly lay ahead for the countries where revolutions had succeeded. Prognosticators could not be certain: Would the Arab Spring lead to a flowering of democracy? Would loosening of the political systems in these countries unleash dangerous forces of extremism or ethno-sectarian conflict? Would new autocrats replace the old ones? Would surviving autocrats harden their positions or see the need for at least gradual change? The soundest forecast may be that the future course of these unpredicted changes will be unpredictable. Nevertheless, it is possible to identify conditions and decisions that are likely to influence whether the region s regime changes will lead to democratization. Foreign policies and aid programs intended to encourage and assist democratization processes will require an understanding of those conditions and decisions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA564922
Entities
People
- Angel Rabasa
- F. Stephen Larrabee
- Jeffrey Martini
- Julie E. Taylor
- Laurel E. Miller
- Stephanie Pezard
- Tewodaj Mengistu
Organizations
- RAND Corporation