Using RASCAL to Find Key Villages in Afghanistan

Abstract

In 2010, the locals of the village of Gizab, Dykundi Province Afghanistan forcibly evicted the Taliban. Though not directly supported by U.S. ground forces, the villagers had received training and logistical support from U.S. Special Forces. Many hoped that the actions of the villagers could be replicated throughout the country. However, there are a limited number of U.S. Special Forces teams to conduct such missions. Can we identify a limited number of villages, such that if we provide them Special Forces support, the local revolts against the Taliban would be most likely to spread and stabilize at a large scale? In this paper, we take a network science approach to the problem. Using the tipping model from the social science literature, a network of villages created using tribal and spatial relationships, and a new software package called RASCAL (that the authors developed), we find that villages in Zabul have a significant influence on Helmand and Kandahar. In our results, villages in Zabul represented 40.00% of the influential villages for those three provinces -- while representing only 26.25% of the total villages examined.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jul 18, 2012
Accession Number
ADA565419

Entities

People

  • Randolph Rotte
  • Sean Eyre
  • Theodore Taggart

Organizations

  • United States Military Academy

Tags

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Afghanistan
  • Algorithms
  • Computer Science
  • Computers
  • Data Sets
  • Graphical User Interface
  • Information Systems
  • Network Science
  • Social Networks
  • Social Sciences
  • Sociology
  • Special Forces
  • Terrorism
  • Training
  • United States
  • United States Government
  • United States Military Academy

Readers

  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.