China's Leadership Transition: What's at Stake?
Abstract
On September 12, 2012, CNA China Studies held a conference to examine the implications of the leadership transition that was about to take place at the 18th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party. This report discusses five key themes that emerged in the conference. First, party Congresses are important because they mark a transition both in personalities and in policy. The identity of the individuals ascending to China's highest Party and military positions was revealed by the end of the 18th Party Congress. But how China's new leadership will assess China's many domestic and international challenges, and what policy approach they will take to meet those challenges, will unfold over many months and years. Second, the 18th Party Congress comes at an especially critical time for China. Conference speakers emphasized the large and myriad challenges facing China's leadership, particularly in domestic economic and social issues. Speakers stressed that China's remarkably high rates of economic and social development over the past three decades simply cannot be sustained if the Chinese continue along their current path. Without a major change in policy direction, China's new leaders will find it increasingly difficult to maintain economic growth, social stability, and Party legitimacy. Third, China's new leaders will face many limitations on their ability to take a new policy direction, even if they want to do so. Conference speakers identified three major limitations: (1) China's unique model of collective, consensus-based decisionmaking; (2) the Party's sensitivity to public pressure; and (3) China's interdependence with other countries. Fourth, the rest of the world is deeply invested in China's policy decisions. Fifth, misperceptions and mistrust constrain the ability of leaders in China, the United States, and other countries to move their relationships forward.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA568254
Entities
People
- Alison A. Kaufman
Organizations
- Center for Naval Analyses