Sources of Error and the Statistical Formulation of Ms | mb Seismic Event Screening Analysis for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT)
Abstract
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), a global ban on nuclear explosions, is currently pre-entry into force. Under the CTBT, a monitoring system of seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasonic and radionuclide sensors operates and data from this system is analyzed by the International Data Centre (IDC). The IDC provides CTBT signatories basic seismic event parameters and a screening analysis indicating whether an event exhibits explosion characteristics (for example, shallow depth). An important component of the screening analysis is a statistical test of the the null hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics using empirical measurements of seismic energy (magnitudes). Relative to mb, earthquakes generally have a larger Ms magnitude than explosions. This paper proposes a hypothesis test (screening analysis) using Ms and mb that expressly accounts for physical correction model inadequacy in the standard error of the test statistic. With this hypothesis test formulation, the 2009 Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) announced nuclear weapon test fails to reject the null hypothesis H0: Explosion Characteristics.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA568897
Entities
People
- Dale N. Anderson
- Howard J. Patton
- Jessie L. Bonner
- Neil D. Selby
- Steven R. Taylor
Organizations
- Los Alamos National Laboratory