South Asia: Danger Ahead?
Abstract
Since their creation in 1947 following the end of British rule in South Asia, India and Pakistan have fought three major wars and spent 64 years in nearly constant conflict, primarily over the future of Kashmir. Over the years, numerous border crises have occurred that could have erupted into major wars, but despite deep distrust and military buildups in both countries, direct large-scale warfare has been averted. However, the potential for a future crisis to lead to another all-out war, possibly with nuclear weapons, cannot be dismissed on the basis of the current Indo-Pakistani standoff. In the years after India and Pakistan conducted nuclear weapon tests in 1998, a debate ensued about whether these devices stabilize or destabilize the political-military situation on the subcontinent. Although both sides in this debate offer compelling arguments, no consensus has emerged. Two new developments -- one doctrinal, one technological -- could increase the possibility of nuclear exchanges in a future crisis between India and Pakistan. Much about what we "know" about state behavior during militarized disputes, particularly involving nuclear weapons, is grounded in rational choice theory and derived in large part from the U.S.-Soviet experience during the Cold War. During that period, analysts and decision makers believed that both sides exhibited restraint during crises because they recognized the potentially severe costs of military action. Some believe that other nuclear-armed countries will also exhibit restraint during militarized crises. However, rational choice may not provide a complete picture of state behavior in cases of militarized disputes. Following a discussion of events leading to the current Indo-Pakistani military balance, I apply prospect theory as an alternative to rational choice to argue that India's new Cold Start military doctrine and Pakistan's new nuclear-capable short-range ballistic missile could tip the balance toward nuclear war in South Asia.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA569578
Entities
People
- Charles E. Costanzo
Organizations
- Air Command and Staff College