The Common Sense of Small Nuclear Arsenals
Abstract
With the publication of President Obama's security strategy, entitled "Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense," it appears that U.S. policymakers are interested in reducing the size of America's nuclear arsenal. This seems to make sense. Reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world has been part of the American security agenda for some time. Interestingly, as the United States seeks yet another round of nuclear arms reductions, the number of states with small nuclear arsenals has risen, albeit slowly, throughout the world. As of 2010, nine states possessed nuclear weapons. The United States and Russia each has thousands, with estimates running as high as 20,000 between them. The remaining seven states share a combined total of approximately 1,000. In this regard, the United States and Russia appear to be out of line with the rest of the world; small nuclear arsenals, not large ones, are the global norm. As the United States contemplates a change in its nuclear posture, might a new epoch in the evolution of nuclear history and strategy be emerging? Has the age of small nuclear arsenals truly arrived? In this article, I use structural theory to explain what I call "the common sense of small nuclear arsenals." The central claim advanced here is that small numbers of nuclear weapons seem to socialize leaders to the dangers of adventurism and, in effect, halt them from behaving recklessly or responding recklessly to provocation. I begin the argument by examining the dynamics of deterrence and dissuasion and then explain small nuclear arsenals in terms of structural theory, relying most heavily on the effects of socialization. Lastly, I outline some concerns for policymakers.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA569647
Entities
People
- James W. Forsyth Jr.
Organizations
- Air University