NATO's Deterrence and Defense Posture After the Chicago Summit
Abstract
On 25-27 June 2012 the NATO Defense College, the NATO Nuclear Policy Directorate, and the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Center on Contemporary Conflict convened a workshop at the NATO Defense College in Rome concerning the future of NATO's deterrence and defense posture in light of the decisions made at the Alliance's summit meeting in Chicago in May 2012. Much of the discussion focused on the Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR) approved by the Allies at the Chicago Summit. Some workshop participants expressed reservations about a fundamental premise of the DDPR -- that the Allies should define an "appropriate mix" of nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities. Some participants argued that missile defense is burdened by questions about its effectiveness and cost, while "conventional deterrence" is threatened by cutbacks in defense spending in the current and potentially long-lasting financial crisis. In this situation, the Allies will be faced with the choice of continuing to rely on nuclear deterrence or seeing deterrence undermined. Many workshop participants said that NATO's nuclear-sharing arrangements remain important for deterrence and assurance within the Alliance. The life extension program for the B-61 gravity bomb and the modernization of dual-capable aircraft remain central issues for the future of NATO's nuclear deterrence posture. Several participants said that the DDPR's focus on nuclear, conventional, and missile defense capabilities was "too narrow" and that future assessments of the Alliance's capability requirements must take the cyber and space dimensions into account. Participants agreed that strategic communication is essential for credibility and effective deterrence and crisis management, and some participants analyzed how messages may be misinterpreted by potential adversaries. Several participants identified obstacles to negotiating limits on Russian nonstrategic nuclear forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Nov 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA569924
Entities
People
- David S. Yost
Organizations
- Naval Postgraduate School