Human Factors In the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor

Abstract

This study evaluates the task and support environments associated with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) watch floor and provides recommendations to improve forecast accuracy. The principal findings indicate that, at this time, factors in the task environment are very likely limiting forecast accuracy. In particular, system-induced practical and cognitive limits on the forecaster s repeatability, i.e., the ability to reproduce an identical forecast given identical information, limits forecast accuracy. Thus, forecasters performance and forecast accuracy could be enhanced by an information integration system with recommended features, by more precise standard operating procedures, and by training and feedback better matched to the task. Further studies are also recommended.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 01, 2012
Accession Number
ADA570846

Entities

People

  • Alex Kirlik
  • Eva Regnier

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Cognition
  • Cognitive Systems Engineering
  • Cognitive Workload
  • Environment
  • Human Factors Engineering
  • Information Processing
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • Mental Processes
  • Operations Research
  • Psychology
  • Standards
  • Statistical Analysis
  • Training
  • Weather Forecasting

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.