Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Structure: Improved Understanding and Prediction. Evaluation of Existing and Development of New Techniques for Global and Mesoscale NWP Model Assessment
Abstract
This is the final year of the four year grant. My main objectives in this final year have been to carry out the following studies: to publish the findings of the now completed work on finding reliable estimates of the theoretical limits to tropical cyclone forecast errors, for both track and intensity predictions, but with emphasis on distinguishing between overall track errors, and position and timing errors at landfall; to complete the work that has addressed the problem of identifying, quantifying and reducing these sources of errors; to continue to improve the initial state specification for TCs, by the development and application of 4D data assimilation procedures, particularly with respect to the ingestion of newly emerging data sources, especially satellite, radar and scatterometer data; to develop and implement major model changes and additions, motivated by the very active 2004 season;in the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico; to complete the work on comparing existing and new methods for the evaluation of the skill of TC track prediction schemes, part of which is to develop new probabilistic statistical and statistical-dynamical procedures for TC forecasting beyond 24 hours, and also to include second order and non-linear effects; and, finally, to complete work on a specific impact of landfalling TCs, namely, the generation of tornadoes, especially tornado outbreaks. My goals all have implications for transitions.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2005
- Accession Number
- ADA572462
Entities
People
- Lance M. Leslie
Organizations
- University of Oklahoma