Improving Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting with Theoretically-Based Statistical
Abstract
The goal of this research has been to improve tropical cyclone intensity prediction through a theoretical study of the hurricane inner core (i.e., within 100-km), the role of ocean structure on hurricane intensity, and the incorporation of those results in a simplified intensity prediction system. The intensity prediction system is being tested in an operational framework in the western North Pacific and is being provided to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) for evaluation. The intensity model is based on the statistical-dynamical logistic growth equation model (LGEM), which has generally been the most accurate operational intensity model in the Atlantic basin during the last several hurricane seasons.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 03, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA573573
Entities
People
- Charles R. Sampson
- James Cummings
- Mark Demaria
- Wayne H. Schubert
Organizations
- Colorado State University