The Future of Sea Power in the Western Pacific
Abstract
American interests in the Western Pacific depend on sea power. Yet China views nearby U.S. sea power as a threat, a counterweight to its regional interests, and a potential barrier to its access to the world's oceans, resources, and markets. China is expanding its sea power in East Asian waters, deploying advanced anti-ship missiles, submarines, and other capabilities that threaten the U.S. fleet. Because this vital region could become unstable or fall under China's sway if U.S. sea power were to recede or become vulnerable, the United States will react to this challenge. Thus, as David C. Gompert explains in "Sea Power and American Interests in the Western Pacific," a classic case of a rising sea power challenging an established one is shaping up in East Asian waters. Such rivalry can lead to confrontation, crisis, or war. Gompert applies the sea-power theory of American naval theorist Alfred Thayer Mahan, the history of three rivalries between established and rising sea powers, and current U.S. and Chinese interests and capabilities to propose how the United States can sustain its sea power and reach a modus vivendi with China in the region. Key findings: (1) U.S. interests and influence in the Western Pacific depend on sea power, as they long have, yet China regards U.S. sea power as menacing and so is expanding its own in the form of advanced anti-naval and naval capabilities; (2) This looming rivalry between an established sea power and a rising one has historical precedents, two of which -- Britain versus Germany and America versus Japan -- ended in war; and (3) To protect its interests yet avoid conflict, the United States should develop distributed, diverse, survivable forces while cooperating with its friends and, ideally, China, to manage regional maritime security.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA579280
Entities
Organizations
- RAND Corporation