Optimization of Coronal Mass Ejection Ensemble Forecasting Using WSA-ENLIL with Coned Model
Abstract
The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL version 2.7, and the Coned model version 1.4 was utilized to form ensemble forecast for 21 coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The Coned model was improved by adding a weight for the associated flare location to push the propagation axis towards the flare location and an additional image was used. Fifteen CMEs were used from previous research using the Coned model version 1.3 and the results were compared to determine the improvement. The model was used again with six additional CMEs and compared to the old Coned model version 1.3 to verify the results. The mean absolute forecast error of the median ensemble results from the original 15 CMEs was improved by 43% over the original Coned model version 1.3. The six additional CMEs verified the improvements. The model was used again to look at multiple CMEs at the same time to get a result where the multiple CMEs occurred over a short period of time. This resulted in an improvement in the error of a sample CME from 8.09 hours to 1.77 hours.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA579514
Entities
People
- Jack A. Shepherd Iii
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology