Demographics-Based Analytical Framework for the Assessment of Security and Regime Stability: The Case of the Middle East

Abstract

Defence transformation and force levels are ultimately connected with assessments of the global future security situation. Frameworks and models that could help NATO define the future threats facilitate the delivery of tomorrow s capabilities. The paper outlines a conceptual framework for assessing the risks of civil conflict and regime instability as a result of significant demographic growth. As a case study it discusses the demographic situation of one of the most volatile regions in the world the Middle East. The proposed framework is based on a correlation between several demographic stress factors, such as the ratio between young workers to all working-age adults, GDP per capita and unemployment rates. The presence of ethnic or sectarian tensions is also considered. The probability of demographic growth to result in regime changes or democratic reforms is assessed based on a correlation between the strength of the youth cohort and the regimes ability to retain power.

Open PDF

Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 01, 2010
Accession Number
ADA582291

Entities

People

  • Anton Minkov

Organizations

  • Defence Research and Development Canada

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Case Studies
  • Civil War
  • Demographic Cohorts
  • Demography
  • Department Of Defense
  • Employment
  • Governments
  • International Organizations
  • Law
  • Middle East
  • National Security
  • North America
  • Personnel Management
  • Political Systems
  • Security
  • Terrorists
  • United States

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Rehabilitation and Prosthetic Care for Military Service Members and Veterans with Limb Loss or Disability.
  • Systems Analysis and Design