Time Sensitive Course of Action Development and Evaluation
Abstract
The development of courses of action that integrate military with diplomatic, economic, and information operations (DIME) poses particular modeling challenges because the different instruments of national, multi-national, or international power operate often on different time scales. Timed Influence Net modeling is a Bayesian net variant that relates causes and effects and enables (a) the determination of alternative courses of action using alternative optimization algorithms and (b) the derivation of probability profiles which show graphically the changes over time of the probability of desired or undesired effects occurring. This provides useful information in selecting a course of action and assessing its risk. A university developed software application called Pythia has been used in the last few years to address issues in the planning of Information Operations, in analyzing the potential impact of counter-terrorism operations, and in coordinating humanitarian assistance. Multiple algorithms are embedded in Pythia to accommodate different causal assumptions. An example based on the development of information operations in conjunction with tactical operations in a province/sector where insurgents are active and destroying some of the infrastructure has been used as the basis for developing and analyzing alternative courses of action. The importance of the attitudes of the non-combatant local population on the probability of achieving the desired effects in a timely manner is illustrated. Sensitivity analyses show the impact of the relative timing of the various DIME related operations.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Oct 01, 2010
- Accession Number
- ADA584037
Entities
People
- Alexander H. Levis
Organizations
- George Mason University