Fiscal Performance and U.S. International Influence
Abstract
U.S. fiscal performance -- the evolution of federal budget deficits and debt and the political process for dealing with both -- is a topic of considerable public interest today. Much has been written about the origins of the current high level of U.S. federal debt, its possible consequences, and proposed approaches to reducing it. This report focuses on a particular aspect of the U.S. fiscal situation that has received less attention: the consequences of the federal debt for U.S. international influence. Admiral Mike Mullen has argued, while he was Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and since he left that post, that "Our national debt is our biggest national security threat." The difficult U.S. fiscal position and efforts to rectify it constrain government spending for many purposes, including national security. Defense spending has already been cut significantly under the provisions of the Budget Control Act of 2011. Judgments differ on the consequences of these defense spending reductions for U.S. military capabilities and for national security more generally. Budget constraints have been sufficient, however, to motivate a major adjustment in U.S. national security guidance. In a letter attached to that guidance, then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said the new strategy recognizes that "the Joint Force of the future will be smaller and leaner." Beyond their direct affect on military spending, high government debt and the steps necessary to reduce this debt to sustainable levels may be undermining the economic instruments of U.S. power and the U.S. ability to shape global conditions through other than military means. This report explores the possible linkages between high government debt and plausible instruments of U.S. international influence. Our principal finding is that, to date, high debt levels have not had clearly negative consequences for U.S. international influence. There are, however, some worrying indications that this may change in the future.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA584957
Entities
People
- C. R. Neu
- Ian P. Cook
- Zhimin Mao
Organizations
- RAND Corporation