Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2013 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II
Abstract
The RAND report Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies used detailed case studies of 71 insurgencies worldwide since World War II to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). One of the core findings of that effort was that a case s score on a scorecard of 15 good factors or practices minus 11 bad factors or practices perfectly discriminated the outcomes of the 59 core cases in the data.1 Cases in which COIN forces were able to maximize the presence of good factors and minimize the presence of bad factors resulted in COIN force success. Specifically, cases with a good-minus-bad score of +2 or greater were always won by the government, and cases with a good-minus-bad score of 1 or lower were always won by the insurgents.2 The research found that all successful COIN forces have a scorecard score of at least +2 and that all successful COIN campaigns realized three specific factors: the disruption of tangible support to the insurgents, the demonstration of commitment and motivation on the part of both the government and COIN forces, and flexibility and adaptability on the part of COIN forces.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA586034
Entities
People
- Beth Grill
- Christopher Edward Paul
- Colin P. Clarke
- Molly Dunigan
Organizations
- RAND Corporation