Modeling the Combined Terrorist-Narcotics Trafficker Threat to National Security
Abstract
The relationship between terrorism, drug trafficking, and policymaking is examined through the development, implementation, and use of a series of systems dynamics-based models. These activities are intended to provide the basis for future development of a decision aid to support policymakers in combating the narco-terror threat. The models developed for this purpose are: a narcotics, counter-narcotics, and trafficker double agent model; a policy cycle model to manage the trafficker double agent conversion policies; a prototype societal deprivation, affection, disaffection, and advanced terrorist recruitment, training, and narco-terrorist support model; entity security and terrorist activity models; a violence generation model; and policy cycle models to represent the management of social violence and entity security policies. These models illustrate the relationships between deprivation of key resources to individuals and disaffection and ultimate terrorist activity; attack of notional targets by teams of terrorists; deprivation of individuals leading to violence, which can lead to an increase in the level of perceived deprivation; dynamics of policymaking in response to perceived needs; and the impact of corruption on policymaking. The U.S. Federal Government has well documented the strong ties between terrorist organizations and drug-trafficking organizations. A number of indictments are further proof of this relationship. In some cases, both organizations need the same facilitators: improve financial gains, expand geographical domains, provide common personnel protection, and utilize common logistical support. The U.S. administration has released two important national strategies to counter each of these threats separately, although their linkage is recognized.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- May 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA586171
Entities
People
- Alexander Woodcock
- Samuel Musa
Organizations
- National Defense University