Actualizing Flexible National Security Space Systems
Abstract
The National Space Policy of the United States of America (2010) calls on the National Security Space (NSS) community to continue to develop and apply advanced technologies and capabilities that respond to changes to the threat environment. This national policy reinforces a trend within the NSS community that places a greater emphasis on the ability of NSS systems to operate in an uncertain future. This dissertation informs policymaking by presenting three essays that address some of the challenges associated with improving the flexibility of NSS capabilities. In addition, each essay includes an application of the decision logic that would be required to optimally support the next generation of flexible space systems. The first essay explores the hypothesis that the NSS community can be more risk-tolerant when launching small satellites that are inexpensive and can be quickly replaced following a launch failure. The ability to bundle multiple payloads on a single launch vehicle is a decision unique to small satellites that adds an extra dimension to the launch risk calculation. While bundling multiple small satellites on a single launch vehicle spreads the initial launch cost across multiple payloads, this strategy also makes a launch failure more costly. This essay develops an analytic framework for constructing optimal small satellite launch strategies for a range of risk preferences. Given the available fleet of launch options, targeted small satellite launch demand, and nominal small satellite attributes, risk-adverse decisionmakers would always seek to minimize the expected cost when choosing how best to launch a set of small satellites. Simple modifications to existing technologies would have the largest impacts on cost and risk.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2011
- Accession Number
- ADA586972
Entities
People
- Kenneth Grosselin Iii
Organizations
- RAND Corporation