Forecasting Demand for KC-135 Sorties: Deploy to Dwell Impacts
Abstract
The KC-135 aircrew deploy to dwell ratio is currently 1:1.3, well above the Air Mobility Command goal of 1:3. On average, a KC-135 aircrew member is away from home station nearly six months of every year. While undoubtedly a quality of life issue, the deploy to dwell ratio may be an indicator of more serious problems. Research indicates sustained high operations tempo can have a negative impact on flying safety, aircrew retention, and even physical or mental health. This research applies time series forecasting techniques to KC-135 sortie data from operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and CONUS missions. These forecasts identify trends for use in predicting future changes to the deploy to dwell ratio. Data from the Iraq drawdown are used to develop an analogy for a similar drawdown in Afghanistan projected for 2014. Aggregate data are analyzed for overall trends. The three year moving average of KC-135 sorties indicates a downward trend in sortie demand, but with marginal statistical confidence. The analysis suggests the KC-135 deploy to dwell ratio will improve, but does not positively quantify that improvement. In a best case scenario, active duty KC-135 aircrew deploy to dwell ratio could improve to 1:1.7 with the end of OEF.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jun 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA587364
Entities
People
- Theodore A. Langstroth Iv
Organizations
- Air Force Institute of Technology