Effect of Nonlinearities on Orbit Covariance Propagation

Abstract

This thesis will examine the effect of nonlinearities on the propagation of orbit uncertainties in order to gain insight into the accurateness of the estimation of covariance with time. Many real-world applications rely on a first-order approximation of nonlinear equations of motion for propagation of orbit uncertainty. The nonlinear effects that are ignored during the linearization process can greatly influence the accuracy of the solution. A comparative analysis of linear and nonlinear orbit uncertainty propagation is presented in order to attempt to determine when linearized uncertainty becomes non-Gaussian. An examination of performance metrics is then accomplished to compare linearly propagated uncertainty to uncertainty propagated using a second-order approximation. An attempt is then made to develop a performance metric that determines when propagated uncertainty is no longer Gaussian. The results show it is difficult to determine a clear method of defining when the linear approximated uncertainty is no longer Gaussian, but there are metrics that can be implemented given a user-defined threshold of performance.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 01, 2013
Accession Number
ADA589696

Entities

People

  • Christopher W. Mcleod

Organizations

  • Naval Postgraduate School

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Air Platforms
  • Materials and Manufacturing Processes
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Accuracy
  • Air Force
  • Computational Science
  • Coordinate Systems
  • Covariance
  • Data Science
  • Differential Equations
  • Distribution Functions
  • Equations
  • Equations Of Motion
  • Information Science
  • Mechanics
  • Orbits
  • Probability Distributions
  • Space Objects
  • Space Systems
  • Two Dimensional

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Plasma Physics / Magnetohydrodynamics

Technology Areas

  • Space
  • Space - Orbital Debris