Dimensions of Uncertainty in Presidential Decision-Making Involving the Use of Force

Abstract

In an increasingly dangerous world, especially since the asymmetric terrorist attacks against the World Trade Center and Pentagon on September 11, 2001, the Commander-in-Chief is often faced with decisions involving military employment that could present enormous risk to the President politically as an individual, and also to the Nation domestically, internationally, and militarily. During the course of a crisis, leaders are presented with a broad set of military options ranging from a show of force to full mobilization and deployment of ground combat troops, all having different dimensions of uncertainty and levels of calculated risk. Over the past two years, President Obama has made numerous decisions involving our military. This project will examine the dimensions of uncertainty and risk in two major decisions by the Obama administration: the Afghanistan surge (2009) and the U.S. unilateral action to kill Osama bin Laden (2011). Many would argue that the "Afghanistan Surge" was a political decision, while the decision to use unilateral force to kill Osama bin Laden in Pakistan was an operational decision. Both involved dimensions of uncertainty that led to the President taking calculated risks that have shaped his role as our Commander-in-Chief.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 25, 2012
Accession Number
ADA592963

Entities

People

  • Anthony R. Hale

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Human Systems

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Afghanistan
  • Brain Injuries
  • Cognition
  • Department Of Defense
  • Employment
  • Military Science
  • National Governments
  • National Politics
  • National Security
  • Personnel Management
  • Seal Teams
  • Students
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • War Colleges
  • Warfare

Readers

  • East Asian Political and Security Studies within the Soviet Union
  • Military and Counterinsurgency Studies.
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.