Irregular Warfare Stability Model (IWSMod)

Abstract

A power law is a special kind of mathematical relationship between two qualities. When the frequency of an event varies as a power of some attribute of the event, the frequency is said to follow the power law. Further investigation of this phenomenon has shown that certain casualty rates during a stable phase of an irregular war seem to also follow approximate power law distributions. If there is enough evidence that this phenomenon is true, then it may be possible to develop a metric to describe the stability of an irregular war. For our case we will take a given violence distribution and see how close that distribution is to the power law. The coefficient of determination will provide the metric and the closer it is to one, the more stable the violence.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Jan 01, 2014
Accession Number
ADA594591

Entities

People

  • D. A. Smith

Organizations

  • Center for Army Analysis

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Afghanistan
  • Asymmetric Warfare
  • Casualties
  • Coefficients
  • Conventional Warfare
  • Emergencies
  • Environment
  • Equations
  • Frequency
  • Governments
  • International Organizations
  • Literature Surveys
  • United States
  • Vietnam War
  • Violence
  • War
  • Warfare

Fields of Study

  • Mathematics

Readers

  • Control Systems Engineering.
  • Irregular Warfare and Special Operations Cyberspace Operations against Adversarial Threats.
  • Regression Analysis.