The Future U.S. Military Presence in Europe: Forces and Requirements for the Post-Cold War Era
Abstract
Research for this Report was begun on October 3, 1990, the day Germany unified. Final writing was completed on February 1, 1992, the day President Bush and Russian President Yeltsin met at Camp David to call for a new era of partnership. Both dates are auspicious, for during the intervening months, epochal changes occurred at a blinding speed, transforming Europe even beyond the monumental upheavals of 1989-1990. A major war was fought in the Persian Gulf, the Soviet state was dissolved, and a new Commonwealth of Independent States was declared. These changes raised the prospect of a hopeful future, but this period also saw disturbing events, including a bitter civil war in Yugoslavia, fighting in Georgia & Azerbaijan, mounting tensions between Russia & Ukraine, and signs of fissures in both NATO and the European Community. During this period, the much-heralded post-Cold War era was launched, and it got off to a shaky start toward an uncertain future. These contradictory trends, unfolding so dramatically in such a short period of time, raise profound questions about Europe's future. Is Europe headed toward an era of enduring peace, or is it drifting toward fragmentation and chaos, which would create entirely new and worrisome dangers? And what about the nearby Middle East and Persian Gulf? The disturbing fact that these questions are difficult to answer underscores the need to think hard and clearly about the future US military presence in Europe. Because the threat of a NATO-Warsaw Pact war has passed into history, the large US posture maintained to underwrite containment and deterrence during the Cold War can now be reduced appreciably. Yet the US forces that remain in Europe will have an important effect on developments within the Western alliance and on European security affairs as a whole. Because uncertainty and possible turbulence lie ahead in Europe and nearby regions, the size and nature of the US posture are an important choice that must be made wisely.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 1992
- Accession Number
- ADA596082
Entities
People
- Richard L. Kugler
Organizations
- RAND Corporation