Improvement of High-Resolution Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Forecasts using COAMPS-TC
Abstract
The long-term goal of this project is to develop a robust and hardened high-resolution air-ocean coupled tropical cyclone (TC) data assimilation and prediction system that is able to assimilate the wide variety of available in-situ and remotely-sensed observations in order to analyze and predict TC structure and intensity changes in an operational environment. TC intensity prediction by numerical models has shown little improvement over the past several decades and remains a formidable forecast problem. It is generally accepted now that while advancements in data assimilation and modeling have resulted in better analyses and predictions of steering flow, the processes that affect the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones are much more difficult for current numerical models to capture and reproduce. We also seek to improve prediction of TC intensity and structure change through an improved understanding and prediction of the TC outflow layer. The outflow layer is hypothesized to play a key role in tropical cyclone intensification and structural changes, and is investigated in a comprehensive manner using the innovative Global Hawk and satellite observations from the Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field program in the Atlantic during 2012-2014 and state-of- the-science tropical cyclone models.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Sep 30, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA598106
Entities
People
- James D. Doyle
Organizations
- United States Naval Research Laboratory