Analysis and High-Resolution Modeling of Tropical Cyclogenesis During the TCS-08 and TPARC Field Campaign

Abstract

The long-term goal of this project is to improve the prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis, structure and intensity changes through improved understanding of the fundamental mechanisms involved. The accurate prediction of TC genesis, structure and intensity changes is critical to Navy missions and civilian activities in coastal areas. Significant gains have been made in the TC track prediction over the past decades. The genesis and intensity forecast, however, has shown very little progress during the same period. A main factor contributing to the lack of skill in the prediction of TC genesis and intensity is the lack of observations prior to and during TC genesis and intensification periods and the inadequate understanding of physical mechanisms that control the cyclogenesis and intensity change. The TCS-08 and TPARC field campaign provide an unprecedented opportunity for us to gain the first-hand insight of observed characteristics of TC genesis in western Pacific and to compare them with high-resolution model simulations. By analyzing and assimilating these data, we intend to understand the physical mechanisms that involve the TC internal dynamic and thermodynamic processes, external forcing, and scale interactions. Only after thoroughly understanding these processes, can one be able to tackle the weaknesses in the current state-of-art weather forecast models. The objective of this project is to investigate the synoptic and climatic aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in the western North Pacific (WNP). On one hand, specific synoptic and dynamic processes through which an initial weak vortex (either mid-level or near-bottom vortex) develops into a TC will be investigated in a cloud-resolving model. On the other hand, the large-scale control of the Madden- Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on TC genesis in the WNP will be examined.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2013
Accession Number
ADA598268

Entities

People

  • Melinda S. Peng
  • Tianming Li

Organizations

  • University of HawaiĘ»i System

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Atmospheric Sciences
  • Climate
  • Convection
  • Cyclogenesis
  • Cyclones
  • Energy
  • Energy Conversion
  • Frequency
  • High Resolution
  • Intensity
  • Meteorology
  • Rossby Waves
  • Simulations
  • Thermodynamic Processes
  • Tropical Cyclones
  • Waves
  • Wind

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers