Identifying Emerging Hybrid Adversaries
Abstract
Hybrid threats represent a very real security challenge for the United States military in the coming decades. They combine the strengths of an irregular fighting force with various capabilities of an advanced state military, and will play an increasingly prominent role in international security issues. What are the attributes of a true hybrid threat, how do they function, and how can they be countered before they even emerge? Much of the existing literature dealing with hybrid threats focuses on what and who they are, both in the present day and in the past. What is needed is a methodological attempt to identify where, and in what capacity, these organizations will emerge over the coming decades. This article describes a methodology to more readily identify an emerging hybrid adversary. The methodology examines the current understanding of hybrid threats and their capabilities, and the identification of three necessary core variables of a hybrid threat organization: maturity, capability, and complex terrain. The sweet spot where these variables overlap is the point of maximum tactical, operational, and strategic effectiveness for a hybrid threat. By superimposing these three variables on a possible threat, we can gauge that organization s potential to develop into a true, mature hybrid adversary. We also see the exact circumstances that would enable this development, and can consider how to assist or impede that development.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2012
- Accession Number
- ADA598608
Entities
People
- Christopher O. Bowers
Organizations
- United States Army War College