Modeling Continuous IED Supply Chains

Abstract

Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) continue to be a main weapon used by terrorists against coalition forces overseas. This thesis intends to provide methods that can give coalition forces a new perspective on ghting IEDs. We begin by rst developing a model of the supply chain terrorists use to develop, emplace and detonate IEDs. Our model contains four states in which IEDs can exist in: construction (C), emplaced (E), detonated (D) and found by coalition forces (F). We also have rate parameters representing the ow rates of IEDs. Over a given period of time, coalition forces can collect data on the number of IEDs that they nd as well as the number of IEDs that detonate. From here, we apply a least squares method to obtain the parameter set for our supply chain model that best ts the collected IED data. Minimizing our least squares equation allows us to estimate where the IEDs are located as well as how fast they are being moved throughout the entire supply chain. Using this, we can judge the impact of our past e orts in stopping IEDs and determine how to best move forward.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Mar 27, 2014
Accession Number
ADA598974

Entities

People

  • Tony Liu

Organizations

  • Air Force Institute of Technology

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Counter IED

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Algorithms
  • Applied Mathematics
  • Computational Science
  • Department Of Defense
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Explosive Devices
  • Explosives
  • Genetic Algorithms
  • Governments
  • Literature Surveys
  • Materials
  • Operations Research
  • Simulations
  • Supply Chain
  • United States Government

Readers

  • Explosive Engineering.
  • Regression Analysis.
  • Strategic Security Studies