Integrated Climate Change and Threatened Bird Population Modeling to Mitigate Operations Risks on Florida Military Installations
Abstract
Climate change is expected to significantly alter low-lying coastal and intertidal areas, which provide important seasonal habitat for a variety of shoreline-dependent organisms. This project developed a set of habitat- and species-based models for the coastal Threatened, Endangered, and At-Risk Species (TER-S): Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus), Piping Plover (C. melodus), and Red Knot (Calidris canutus). The models were used to predict risk to the TER-S under different climate change scenarios in Eglin and Tyndall Air Force Bases (AFB) and surrounding areas. The model predictions and site use data were utilized in a risk-informed, multi-criteria decision analysis framework to allow systematic evaluation of management options at Eglin and Tyndall. Overall, projected habitat types at Eglin AFB are more stable over time than Tyndall AFB or the whole Gulf Coast of Florida. The Gulf Coast simulations show that the Snowy Plover population size will decline faster than the area of habitat or carrying capacity. MCDA returned variable results in ranking preferred management alternatives because of the uncertainty in the system. Beach nourishment and exclosures were the preferred management alternatives and no action was the least preferred. The integrated modeling and management framework developed in this study can be generalized to other coastal facilities and environmental management needs.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA600408
Entities
People
- Anna Linhoss
- Christopher Martinez
- Gregory A. Kiker
- Igor Linkov
- Lev Ginzburg
- Matteo Convertino
- Matthew Aiello-lammens
- Rafael Munoz-carpena
- Resit Akcakaya
- Richard A. Fischer
Organizations
- Engineer Research and Development Center