Effects of Near-Term Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Infrastructure
Abstract
The objective of this investigation was to develop new methods for comprehensive modeling of the effects and potential risk of projected sea-level rise, and increased storminess, on coastal environments and infrastructure over the next century. The project has focused on the Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB) region on the northwest Florida coast. The methods that have been developed in this work are applicable to military installations in similar coastal settings. The project had six major components: (1) analyzing historic coastal change and remote sensing data; (2) modeling future storms; (3) analyzing the paleostorm history in coastal sediments; (4) modeling coastal wetlands; (5) modeling coastal groundwater; (6) modeling morphologic change and analyzing uncertainty. The project has had several significant outcomes. We have developed one of the most comprehensive databases ever assembled on historic changes in shorelines and barrier island morphology. A regional storm history has been developed for use in the modeling effort, both for historic and prehistoric time. We have combined our field and archival data to develop a purpose-built numerical model of coastal morphology, incorporating morphological, sea-level, and storm climatology data to predict changes over the next century. The outcomes of this study can be used to evaluate how to make reliable predictions of the effects of future climate change on coastal infrastructure and natural coastal systems. The expected result will be to enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to prepare for a warmer future.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Mar 01, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA600409
Entities
People
- Alan W. Niedoroda
- Bill X. Hu
- James B. Elsner
- Joseph F. Donoghue
- Ming Ye
- Stephen A. Kish
- Yang Wang
Organizations
- Florida State University