Extended-Range Prediction with Low-Dimensional, Stochastic-Dynamic Models: A Data-driven Approach

Abstract

The long-term goal of this project is to quantify the extent to which reduced-order models can be used for the description, understanding and prediction of atmospheric, oceanic and sea ice variability on time scales of 1-12 months and beyond. The objectives are to demonstrate the ability of linear and nonlinear, stochastic-dynamic models to capture the dominant and most predictable portion of the climate system's variability. Improve the understanding and prediction of the low-frequency modes (LFMs) of variability such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern. Validate LDMs based on data sets from observations, reanalyses and high-end simulations.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Sep 30, 2013
Accession Number
ADA601139

Entities

People

  • Adam Sobel
  • Alexey Kaplan
  • Andrew W. Robertson
  • Dake Chen
  • Dmitri Kondrashov
  • Mark Cane
  • Michael Ghil
  • Michael K. Tippett
  • Mickael D. Chekroun
  • Mingfang Ting
  • Suzana J. Camargo
  • Xiaojun Yuan
  • Yochanan Kushnir

Organizations

  • University of California, Los Angeles

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Temperature
  • Baffin Bay
  • Bering Sea
  • Climate Change
  • Computational Science
  • Differential Equations
  • Equations
  • Frequency
  • Geography
  • Markov Models
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • North America
  • Oceans
  • Physics
  • Ridges
  • Surface Temperature
  • United States

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Adaptive Control and Estimation with Uncertainty in Dynamic Systems.
  • Atmospheric Science/Meteorology
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers