A Systemic Assessment Model for Al-Qaida's Global Jihad

Abstract

This research effort proposes a Systemic Assessment model to examine Al-Qaida's strategy for global jihad through the lens of system theory resulting in strategic insights invaluable to those tasked with developing the U.S. counter-strategy. American defense strategists attempting to counter Al-Qaida's global jihad must understand and assess Al-Qaida's strategy in order to successfully counter it. The current state-of-the-art assessment methodology, Effects-Based Operational Assessments (EBOA), has demonstrated significant limitations due to its constraining assumptions and linear formulation. In contrast, this paper proposes Systemic Assessment, based on system theory, which allows for nonlinearity and violations of the EBOA model's constraining assumptions a property especially useful when examining Al-Qaida's strategy. Al-Qaida's ultimate aim is the establishment of a pure Islamist society led by a legitimate Caliph and governed by the Sharia throughout the entirety of the Muslim lands. The Systemic Assessment model formulated to examine Al-Qaida's strategy for global jihad enables American strategic policymakers to identify the successes, failures, and limitations of Al-Qaida's strategy in order to better anticipate the feasible range of future Al-Qaida operations and develop counter-strategies to defeat them.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Apr 11, 2013
Accession Number
ADA601698

Entities

People

  • Timothy J. Cook

Organizations

  • Marine Corps University

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Civil War
  • Contingency Operations (Military)
  • Governments
  • International Security
  • Iraqi-War
  • Military Applications
  • Military Science
  • Organizational Structure
  • Political Movements
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Societies
  • Students
  • Terrorism
  • Terrorists
  • United States
  • Warfare

Readers

  • Computational Modeling and Simulation
  • Political Violence and Terrorism Studies.