The Effectiveness of Remotely Piloted Aircraft in a Permissive Hunter-Killer Scenario
Abstract
Remotely piloted aircraft (RPAs) notably the medium-altitude MQ-1 Predator and MQ-9 Reaper have provided crucial support to counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations over the past decade. As these operations come to a close, the Air Force has begun to evaluate additional RPA concepts to meet future needs. In this report, we analyze the operational effectiveness of three RPA design concepts, plus the MQ-9 as a baseline, on a hunter-killer mission: to find and destroy a specific moving vehicle. All the findings in this report are based on the modeling results for a particular scenario (with variants) and should be understood within that context. Although our scenario is representative of many hunter-killer missions as they are executed today, it is not representative of others. It also relies on several crucial assumptions. Most important, the threat environment we modeled is permissive, meaning that there is negligible threat to the aircraft. This permits the use of concepts of operations (CONOPS) untempered by survivability concerns. In the particular scenario we considered, the initial cue for the target vehicle is urgent but imprecise, allowing only that the enemy is expected to emerge from hiding somewhere in a five nmi2 area within 15 minutes. Its ultimate destination is believed to be outside this area but is otherwise unknown. Finding the target vehicle before it leaves the area therefore necessitates a rapid, brute-force search. Because the area is not especially large, the search is not difficult but is complicated by environmental factors. The cued area is an urban environment, which constrains line of sight to steep viewing angles. Moreover, in many of the variants we considered, the RPA sensor operator is forced to contend with other effects detrimental to establishing and maintaining line of sight, including fog and clouds.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Jan 01, 2014
- Accession Number
- ADA601848
Entities
People
- Carl Rhodes
- Lance Menthe
- Myron Hura
Organizations
- RAND Corporation