Conflict vs Co-evolution: The Future of Sino-American Relations
Abstract
In the longer term, Chinese political liberalization will enable a cooperative relationship to develop between the nations. Currently, numerous sources of instability plague China s national leadership, including challenges to territorial sovereignty, outside provocations, and domestic discontent. While all of these problems are significant in their own right and China is dealing with them with varying degrees of success, by their nature none seem likely to individually or collectively push the greater Sino-American relationship off track. Lack of open confrontation, however, does not equal a cooperative relationship. While the Chinese belief in a strong central government is unlikely to change, several factors point to the increasing likelihood of a significant political liberalization. First, CCP leadership believes that sustained growth is critical to maintaining social stability. Second, this social stability is far more important to them than Communist party ideology. Third, China is at the point where its illiberal government is beginning to inhibit economic progress, which will ultimately drive the abandonment of current authoritarian practices. The question for the U.S. becomes how it can best encourage such developments within China, without antagonizing it in the process. Current U.S. policy speaks to cooperation but treats China mostly as a competitor and seeks to contain its growing influence regionally and globally. This overt containment strategy risks perpetuating the cycle of distrust between the countries and dampening prospects for cooperation. While a degree of hedging is required while China remains an opaque, authoritarian government, shifting the balance in American rhetoric and engagement actions toward a co-evolution strategy would provide the Chinese government and people the political breathing room needed for internal forces of liberalization to take hold and develop.
Document Details
- Document Type
- Technical Report
- Publication Date
- Apr 18, 2013
- Accession Number
- ADA603750
Entities
People
- Robert S. Vuolo
Organizations
- Marine Corps University