Simulation of Extreme Arctic Cyclones in IPCC AR5 Experiments

Abstract

Increasing attention is being paid to extreme weather, including recent high-profile events involving very destructive cyclones. In summer 2012 a historically powerful cyclone traversed the Arctic, a region experiencing rapid warming and dramatic loss of ice and snow cover. This project addresses whether such powerful storms are an emerging expression of anthropogenic climate change by investigating simulated extreme Arctic cyclones during the historical period (1850-2005) among global climate models in the CMIP5 archive. These GCMs are able to simulate extreme pressures associated with strong polar storms without a significant dependence on model resolution. The models display realism by generating extreme Arctic storms primarily around sub-polar cyclone regions (Aleutian and Icelandic) and preferentially during winter. Simulated secular trends in Arctic mean sea level pressure (SLP) and extreme cyclones are equivocal; both indicate increasing storminess in some regions, but the magnitude of changes to date are modest compared with future projections.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
May 15, 2014
Accession Number
ADA603823

Entities

People

  • Stephen J. Vavrus

Organizations

  • University of Wisconsin–Madison

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Space

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Arctic Ocean
  • Beaufort Sea
  • Climate Change
  • Data Sets
  • Frequency
  • Greenhouse Effect
  • Greenhouses
  • Grids
  • High Latitudes
  • Ice
  • Military Operations
  • Naval Operations
  • Oceans
  • Sea Ice
  • Sea Level
  • Simulations

Fields of Study

  • Environmental science

Readers

  • Economics
  • Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Flux Boundary Layers
  • Polar and Arctic Studies