Quantitative Risk - Phases 1 & 2

Abstract

A novel approach to technical risk identification and analysis for major weapons systems acquisitions is proposed. It is informed by the limitations of the current risk matrix. The approach is to examine representations of the evolving system design to locate sources of complexity and then inform the program manager as he/she makes technical choices among competing alternatives. Some of the alternatives will create more complexity and therefore more risk. The PM will then be able to balance risk and reward at the point of decision-making, deciding to engage risk at that moment by his/her choices. In addition, we propose to rate or score the contractor + government organizations' abilities to master the complexity they have chosen, so that the PM will know whether there is a match of product complexity with organizational capability. Future work will add dimensions of interconnections and interdependencies among risks, timing, delay order of risks, and uncertainty.

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Document Details

Document Type
Technical Report
Publication Date
Nov 12, 2013
Accession Number
ADA605906

Entities

People

  • Ali Mostashari
  • Gary Witus
  • Roshanak R Nilchiani
  • Stan Rifkin
  • Walt Bryzik

Organizations

  • Systems Engineering Research Center

Tags

Communities of Interest

  • Autonomy
  • Cyber
  • Energy and Power Technologies
  • Ground and Sea Platforms
  • Human Systems
  • Space
  • Weapons Technologies

DTIC Thesaurus Topics

  • Air Force
  • Bayesian Networks
  • Computational Science
  • Data Mining
  • Engineers
  • Governments
  • Information Science
  • Information Systems
  • Military Acquisition
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • National Security
  • Network Science
  • Predictive Modeling
  • Systems Engineering
  • Test And Evaluation
  • Unmanned Aerial Vehicles
  • War Colleges

Readers

  • Aviation Safety Risk Assessment.
  • Defense Acquisition Program Management
  • Team-Based Human-Centered Cognitive Task Decision Making and Information Performance.